Dollar Selling as U.S. Rate Hike Cycle Nears End; Central Banks Continue to Raise Interest Rates【March 24, 2023】
Fundamental Analysis
Major U.S. stock indexes rebounded slightly, with tech stocks in better shape
Bank of England decided to raise interest rate by 0.25
Swiss Central Bank decided to raise interest rate by 0.5
Countries prioritize inflation despite banking concerns
Dollar selling intensifies as U.S. rate hike cycle comes to an end
More borrowers have excessive debt; loan officer survey in focus
Gold closes near USD 2,000 level, affected by dollar selling trend
Bitcoin Climbs to USD 28,000 Level, Uptrend Strengthens
Bitcoin nears milestone price point, watch for pullback
Technical Analysis
The dollar is clearly selling off in anticipation of the approaching end of the U.S. interest rate hike cycle. In addition, financial instability has not been dispelled, which has increased demand for safe assets. On the other hand, there is a sense of a lull in the market, as the market has moved significantly from last week to this week. With the end of the fiscal year approaching in Japan, one should pay attention to movements in real demand.
In a market that appears to be moving in complex ways, it will be easier to grasp the overall movement if we broaden our perspective to include daily and weekly time frames.
GOLD (XAUUSD)
Analyzing the 4-hour chart of Gold, we can apply the Elliott wave: if we consider the price movement from USD 1809.00 as the first wave of propulsion, it now corresponds to the fifth wave. It will be interesting to see if the recent high of USD 2009 can be renewed today.
A large resistance zone awaits at USD 2013.00, and once the price tries to move higher, it may move back down. The long-term direction is up, but we would wait for a deep push and consider buying positions. once the resistance zone between USD 2008.00 and USD 2013.00 is broken, the next resistance zone will be around USD 2060.00, followed by a blank price zone.
Estimated rangeUSD 1964.00 – USD 2018.00Resistance lineUSD 2008.00 , USD 2013.00Support lineUSD 1979.00
Australian Dollar Yen (AUDJPY)
Analyzing the daily chart of the AUDJPY. AUDJPY has been rising and falling every day, but still making lower highs. 86.950 is a big support line, and we do not expect a big decline until the end of this month. 86.950 is a low, and if the price starts to rise, it could form a double bottom and rise to the JPY 90 level.
Estimated rangeJPY 86.65 – JPY 88.50Resistance lineJPY 87.45円 , JPY 87.97Support lineJPY 86.80 , JPY 86.93
Nikkei 225 (Nikkei Stock Average)
The weekly chart of the Nikkei 225 is analyzed. On the daily chart, there is no sense of direction due to the violent ups and downs, but on the weekly chart, there is a symmetrical triangle of falling highs and rising lows, and the situation is heading toward convergence.
A weekly triangle is a rare occurrence, and could be highly volatile going forward; a reversal above JPY 25,600 is highly likely. Until a break in either direction, the short-term trading policy is.
Estimated rangeJPY 27,000 – JPY 27,800Resistance lineJPY 27,480Support lineJPY 27,140
Today’s Important Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)UK Retail Sales16:00UK Manufacturing PMI18:30Canada Retail Sales21:30U.S. Manufacturing PMI22:45
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.
Risk Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
