Decline in the EUR/USD continues, with interest rate hike cessation and surging crude oil prices in the background.【October 3, 2023】
Fundamental Analysis
The EUR/USD continues its decline, with unstoppable US dollar buying and capital outflows from the EU zone.
The US contemplates interest rate hikes, while there are speculations of the ECB concluding its rate hikes, possibly leading to the selling of the Euro.
The EUR/USD breaks below 1.05, updating its lows.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
Analyzing the daily chart of the EUR/USD. Currently, the 72-day moving average is approaching the 120-day moving average from below, with the potential for a bearish crossover (dead cross signal) which suggests a strengthening of the downtrend.
On the other hand, the RSI stands at 31, nearing the oversold level. This could result in a short-term rebound for profit-taking. Such a bounce could be seen as an opportunity for re-entry selling.
With the price below the 24-day moving average, the current situation suggests that the downtrend is continuing. However, if there’s a move above the 10-day moving average, caution is needed for a potential temporary bounce.
Day Trading Strategy (Hourly)
Analyzing the 1-hour chart of the EUR/USD, it has broken below 1.05, updating its lows. The trend of the moving averages indicates a perfect order, suggesting a continuation of the declining trend. Especially, if the 72-hour moving average turns downwards, increased selling pressure is highly likely.
From a fundamental standpoint, given speculations of ending interest rate hikes, expectations of additional US rate hikes, and soaring crude oil prices, there’s a continued environment favoring Euro selling, and a move targeting 1.02 is plausible.
For a day trading strategy, consider a sell entry at 1.0485, a take profit at 1.0414, and a stop at 1.0515.
Support and Resistance Lines
The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows
1.051 USD – Pivot Point1.050 USD – Round Number1.041 USD – Major Support Zone
Market Sentiment
EURUSD Sell: 8% Buy: 92%
Today’s Important Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)Announcement of Australian policy interest rates (Expected to remain unchanged)12:30Swiss Consumer Price Index15:30US JOLTS Job Openings23:00
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.
Risk Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
