Euro Falls, ECB Decides to Keep Policy Rates Unchanged【January 26, 2024】
Fundamental Analysis
ECB decides to maintain policy rates, considering a rate cut premature.
ECB President suggests a potential rate cut around summer, but markets anticipate a 90% chance of a rate cut in April.
Euro-dollar remains volatile near the 200-day moving average.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
Analyzing the daily chart of the Euro-Dollar exchange rate. The 200-day moving average currently acts as a support line, but the market is unstable, moving within the Ichimoku Cloud.A significant support line exists at USD 1.0824, having rebounded twice. The market’s expectation of a rate cut poses a downside risk for the Euro-Dollar.A breach below the 200-day moving average could lead to a further decline. The RSI is at 45, indicating a continuing downtrend. A bearish stance is appropriate in the long term, with potential declines to USD 1.0625 if the 200-day average is breached.
Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)
Analyzing the 1-hour chart of the Euro-Dollar exchange rate. USD 1.0824 is a monthly support line, with the 240-day moving average converging nearby. Breaking below this level could trigger a sharp decline. The current 240-day moving average is suppressing the upside, with a future potential for a downward breakout.Fundamental analysis predicts a Euro-Dollar downtrend due to ECB’s inclination towards rate cuts and strengthening of the dollar.The trading strategy focuses on downward movements, considering sell positions near USD 1.085, with a target around USD 1.075 for settlements. Set stop-loss if the price rebounds without breaking below USD 1.0824.
Support and Resistance Lines
Upcoming significant support and resistance lines:
USD 1.0824 – Monthly support lineUSD 1.0750 – Past support line
Market Sentiment
EURUSD Sell: 38%, Buy: 62%
Today’s Important Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes8:50U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Core Price Index22:30
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.
Risk Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
