EURUSD Recovers Upward Trend, Eyes on U.S. PCE Price Index and Officials’ Speeches【February 29, 2024】
Fundamental Analysis
EURUSD has surpassed the 240-day moving average line, and the RSI has recovered to 50.
Today, the U.S. PCE Price Index is scheduled for release, with the market focusing on this inflation indicator.
Early tomorrow, speeches from Federal Reserve officials are scheduled, with U.S. interest rate policy in focus.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
Analyzing the daily chart for EURUSD. EURUSD momentarily broke below the descending trend line, appearing to fall. However, it has now risen above the trend line again, and yesterday, the baseline of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo acted as a support line. It has also surpassed the 240-day moving average, leading to a directionless market situation.
Today’s U.S. PCE Price Index is a significant inflation indicator and is under scrutiny. The previous CPI and PPI both exceeded market expectations, significantly delaying the timing of the Fed’s rate cut. If tonight’s PCE Price Index also exceeds expectations, the rate cut in June could be in doubt. The immediate resistance line is around 1.088 USD.
Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)
Analyzing the 1-hour chart for EURUSD. EURUSD experienced a drop yesterday, falling about 70 Pips to the vicinity of 1.08 USD. Currently, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo cloud is acting as a resistance zone, leading to an unsettled market. The RSI is above 50, but it appears to be forming a return peak.
It is the end of the month, so there may be position adjustments.
The day trading stance is to sell. The target for settlement is around 1.0815 USD. The stop is set at the recent high of 1.0846 USD.
Support and Resistance Lines
The following are the support and resistance lines to consider:
1.0866 USD – Monthly resistance line
Market Sentiment
EURUSD Sell: 63% Buy: 37%
Today’s important economic indicators
Economic indicators and eventsJapan timeJapan Retail Sales8:50Australia Retail Sales9:30Bank of Japan Core CPI14:00Germany Retail Sales16:00Switzerland GDP17:00U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index22:30Canada GDP22:30FOMC Member CommentsNext 0:50FOMC Member CommentsNext 3:15
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.
Risk Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
