U.S. Interest Rates on the Rise, USD Strengthens, USDJPY Attempts 150JPY【October 16, 2024】
Fundamental Analysis
The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) members have hinted at a cautious stance on rate cuts, suggesting only minor policy actions.
U.S. stock indices continue to hit record highs, and U.S. interest rates are rising.
USDJPY technical analysis
Analyzing the monthly chart of USDJPY, we display the 12-month (1-year), 24-month (2-year), and 120-month (5-year) moving averages. USDJPY is approaching the 150JPY mark, with the 1-year moving average acting as resistance, while the 2-year moving average serves as support. It appears the pair is testing these levels.
The RSI has bounced off the 50 level, indicating a pullback buy occurred. When drawing Fibonacci retracement, a reaction can be observed at the 38.2% level, leading to a strong rebound.
With the U.S. presidential election in November, USD strength seems likely to continue. Considering the RSI bouncing at 50, if USDJPY breaks above the 12-month moving average, it may rise again towards the 152JPY level.
Day trading strategy (1 hour)
Analyzing the weekly chart of USDJPY, the 52-week moving average is acting as resistance. USDJPY has rebounded at the 61.8% retracement of the recent major uptrend and is currently moving above the 38.2% level.
The RSI has reached the 50 level, marking a shift from a downward trend to a neutral stance. While upward momentum is weakening, it remains uncertain whether a reversal will occur.
For swing trading, the current strategy favors selling into rallies. If USDJPY rises to the mid-150JPY range, selling pressure is expected to increase. A stop should be placed at 152JPY, and the target for taking profit is around 142JPY.
Support/Resistance lines
The key support and resistance levels to watch moving forward are as follows:
150.20JPY … 12-month (1-year) moving average
148.50JPY … Weekly Fibonacci 50%
Market Sentiment
USDJPY Short: 64% Long: 36%
Today’s important economic indicators
Economic Indicators and EventsJapan TimeSpeech by BOJ Board Member Adachi10:30UK Consumer Price Index15:00
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.
Risk Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
