Stocks and USD Strength, Yet JPY Appreciates? USDJPY Falls to 153 JPY【November 22, 2024】
Fundamental Analysis
US stock indices saw a rebound, and the Dollar Index also reached a record high.
USDJPY shifted towards JPY strength following comments from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor hinting at a possible rate hike in December.
USDJPY Technical Analysis
Analyzing the daily chart for USDJPY, we observe an interesting divergence. While US stock indices rebounded and the Dollar Index rose (indicating USD strength), USDJPY fell from the 155 JPY range to the 153 JPY range. This indicates a stronger JPY trend overshadowing USD strength.
One key factor contributing to this shift is the BOJ governor’s comments hinting at a potential rate hike in December. The governor emphasized that rate hikes remain dependent on data, but Japan’s recovering consumer spending and two consecutive months of rising inflation support this view.
On the chart, two bearish engulfing candlesticks appeared at the high price range, signaling heavy resistance and potential reversal. If the rate hike expectations intensify, USDJPY could drop further, potentially testing the 200-day moving average around the 152.50 JPY level.
Day trading strategy (1 hour)
Analyzing the 1-hour chart for USDJPY, the pair continues to decline and is currently trading in the lower 154 JPY range. The recent low was at 153.90 JPY, and breaking this level could lead to a test of the November 19 low at 153.27 JPY. The market remains sensitive to the possibility of a BOJ rate hike in December, reinforcing the strength of JPY over USD.
Trading Approach
Sell Strategy: Aim for short positions around 154.50 JPY.
Take Profit: Target 153.50 JPY.
Stop Loss: Above 155 JPY.
Support/Resistance lines
Key support and resistance lines to consider:
- 154.50 JPY: Pivot point.
Market Sentiment
USDJPY Sell: 62% Buy: 38%
Today’s important economic indicators
Economic Indicators and EventsJapan TimeJapan National Core CPI08:30Nikkei Services PMI09:30UK Core Retail Sales16:00German GDP16:00US Manufacturing PMI23:45US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index00:00 (Midnight)
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.
Risk Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
