USDJPY Rises as BOJ Rate Hike Expectations Fall to Around 25%【December 11, 2024】
Fundamental Analysis
RBA Holds Rates, Hints at January Rate Cut
Cautious Sentiment Ahead of US CPI
BOJ December Rate Hike Expectations Decline, USDJPY Climbs to 200-Day Moving Average
USDJPY Technical Analysis
Analyzing the daily chart for USDJPY, we see a strong yen-selling trend influenced by lowered expectations for a BOJ rate hike and a temporary pause in the Fed’s rate cuts next year. USDJPY is currently testing the 52-day moving average, with the focus on whether it can break through the cloud resistance.
If the pair breaks above the 52-day moving average, it will face the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, where intense buying and selling pressure are likely to battle for dominance.
Major securities firms remain divided between yen appreciation and depreciation, with today’s US CPI potentially providing directional clarity.
Day trading strategy (1 hour)
The 1-hour chart for USDJPY shows the pair breaking below the conversion line, indicating a potential decline toward the base line. However, the overall trend remains in favor of yen depreciation. With the US CPI release scheduled for today, the market direction will likely hinge on the results.
If the CPI does not exceed expectations significantly, a gradual shift toward yen appreciation is anticipated.
For day trading, the suggested strategy is:
Sell Limit Order at 152.70 JPY
Take Profit Around 150.00 JPY
Stop Loss at 153.25 JPY
Support/Resistance lines
Key support and resistance lines to consider:
- 152.70 JPY – 52-day Moving Average / Fibonacci Retracement
Market Sentiment
USDJPY Sell: 53% / Buy: 47%
Today’s important economic indicators
Economic Indicators and EventsJapan TimeJapan Large Manufacturers’ Sentiment Index8:50US Core CPI22:30Canada Policy Rate Announcement23:45US Crude Oil Inventories0:30 (next day)
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.
Risk Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
