USDJPY Extends Gains for the Fifth Consecutive Day, Focus on Next Year’s U.S. Interest Rate Outlook【December 13, 2024】
Fundamental Analysis
The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded forecasts, suggesting that the decline in interest rates might be more gradual.
The European Central Bank has implemented its third consecutive rate cut, with indications of continued rate reductions in 2025.
The Swiss National Bank surprised markets with a significant rate cut aimed at preventing excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc.
USDJPY Technical Analysis
USDJPY remains above the 200-day moving average, maintaining a gradual upward trajectory. Expectations for a rate hike in next week’s Bank of Japan meeting are low, with the decision likely deferred to next year. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation-related indicators have shown mixed results, but the rise in unemployment claims has heightened market sensitivity.
Using Fibonacci Expansion, 159.28 JPY corresponds to the 61.8% level. The pair has found support near the 72-day moving average, and a scenario where USDJPY rises to the 160 JPY range should also be considered.
Day trading strategy (1 hour)
Analyzing the 1-hour chart, USDJPY is reacting to the 72-hour moving average. Yesterday, it hit a high of 152.80 JPY before closing higher. Market sentiment is evenly split, making it essential to monitor developments from the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting.
For short-term day trading, consider buying on dips near 152.60 JPY, aiming for a take profit at 153.20 JPY. Set a stop loss at 152.40 JPY.
Support/Resistance lines
Key support and resistance lines to consider:
- 153.18 JPY: Monthly resistance line
Market Sentiment
USDJPY Sell: 50% / Buy: 50%
Today’s important economic indicators
Economic Indicators and EventsJapan TimeBOJ Tankan Large Manufacturing Index8:50Japan Industrial Production13:30EU Industrial Production19:00
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.
Risk Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
