EU Warns of Retaliatory Tariffs, Trade Friction Concerns, but USDJPY Rises【February 12, 2025】
Fundamental Analysis
The EU is reportedly planning retaliatory tariffs against the US, potentially escalating trade friction.
The forex market remains directionless, with slight fluctuations continuing.
USDJPY Technical Analysis
Analyzing the daily chart of USDJPY, the pair has once again risen above the 200-day moving average. Fed Chair Powell has stated that there is no urgency to implement rate cuts, reinforcing expectations that high-interest rates will persist. This has led to a stronger USD, driving USDJPY higher. However, resistance is expected at the Ichimoku Cloud, and the 153 JPY level is likely to act as a significant barrier.
With former President Trump continuously introducing new factors into the market, traders are reacting to each headline, creating a sense of market fatigue. For the time being, USDJPY is likely to remain in a wait-and-see mode, with resistance expected around the high 153 JPY range.
Day trading strategy (1 hour)
Analyzing the 1-hour chart of USDJPY, the pair has strengthened following Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony, which signaled a cautious stance on rate cuts. USDJPY has climbed to around 152.90 JPY, nearing the 153 JPY level.
Since the pair is currently trading above the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, selling pressure is expected once it reaches the 153 JPY range. A trading strategy has been set with a sell limit order at 153.05 JPY, a second sell limit order at 153.18 JPY, and a stop-loss at 153.40 JPY. The target take-profit level is set at 152.50 JPY.
Support/Resistance lines
Key support and resistance lines to consider:
153.76 JPY – Lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud
153.05–153.15 JPY – Resistance zone
Market Sentiment
USDJPY Sell: 43% / Buy: 57%
Today’s important economic indicators
Economic Indicators and EventsJapan TimeUS Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)22:30US Crude Oil Inventory00:00 (midnight)FOMC Member Bostic Speaks02:00 (next day)
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.
Risk Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
