U.S.-China Trade Talks Conclude, USDJPY Opens at 146【May 12, 2025】
Fundamental Analysis
Both the U.S. and China emphasize “significant progress” in talks
The FX market reacts with USD buying; USDJPY opens in the 146 JPY range
USDJPY Technical Analysis
Analyzing the daily chart of USDJPY: the pair opened the week around the 146 JPY level. The previously uncertain U.S.-China trade negotiations concluded with both parties describing the outcome as “significant progress,” fueling expectations for a de-escalation of tensions.
USDJPY is moving near its 52-day moving average, with the Ichimoku cloud overhead acting as a resistance zone. The 52-day MA previously served as resistance during the March rebound, suggesting it may again act as a strong ceiling. Chasing the highs should be avoided.
This development is likely positive for equity markets, potentially reinforcing an upward trend. Whether USDJPY can break above the Ichimoku cloud will be a key point moving forward.
Day trading strategy
The FX market is responding with broad USD buying. Due to the weekend gap up in USDJPY, caution is warranted regarding a possible gap-filling move in the near term. A buy entry may be considered once the gap is closed.
The RSI has reached 68, suggesting the need for caution regarding potential pullbacks. While USDJPY has set a new high, attention should be paid to whether the 10-day moving average will act as a support level.
A move toward 148.50 JPY is also worth watching.
Day Trading Plan**** Buy on dip strategy:
Buy Entry: 145.50 JPY
Take Profit: 145.90 JPY
Stop Loss: 145.35 JPY
Support/Resistance lines
Key support and resistance lines to consider:
145.90 JPY – 52-day moving average
145.88 JPY – 10-day moving average
Market Sentiment
USDJPY – Sell: 45% / Buy: 55%
Today’s important economic indicators
Economic Indicators and Events**Scheduled Time (JST)**Japan Current Account Balance8:50 AMJapan Economy Watchers Survey2:00 PMU.S. Monthly Budget Statement3:00 AM (next day)
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.
Risk Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
