U.S. ADP Employment Data Plunges, USDJPY Tumbles【June 5, 2025】
Fundamental Analysis
U.S. ADP employment data deteriorated significantly; result: 37,000 jobs
Focus shifts to this week’s official U.S. employment report
Geopolitical risks between Russia and Ukraine have sharply escalated
USDJPY Technical Analysis
The U.S. ADP employment report released yesterday was much worse than expected. The number of jobs came in at just 37,000, about one-third of forecasts, and 25,000 fewer than the previous figure. This triggered a surge in risk-off sentiment and accelerated dollar selling, causing USD/JPY to plunge from the 144 yen level to around 142.50 yen.
As a result, the pair rebounded downward from the 52-day moving average and is now trading in a range between Fibonacci 23.6% and 38.2% levels. The 23.6% support line is likely to remain in focus.
Going forward, attention will be on whether the pair breaks out of the 142.50 to 144 yen range.
USDJPY/Daily
Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)
USD/JPY saw a sharp drop in response to the ADP data but has temporarily rebounded. As the moving averages are flattening out, there is a possibility of a rise toward the mid-143 yen level. However, the overall tone remains risk-off, making a sustained dollar rally unlikely.
We recommend a strategy targeting the rebound highs near the moving averages.
Day Trade Plan:
Sell Limit: 143.30 yen
Take Profit: 142.50 yen
Stop Loss: 143.55 yen
USDJPY／1H
Support and Resistance Levels
Support and resistance levels to watch going forward:
143.30 yen – Key 1-hour moving average
142.50 yen – Fibonacci level
Market Sentiment
USDJPY
- 28% short / 72% long
Today’s Key Economic Events
| Event | Time (JST) |
| --- | --- |Eurozone – ECB Interest Rate21：15U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims21：30Eurozone – ECB Press Conference21：45
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.
Risk Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
