The Fed Holds Rates Steady, Damps Rate Cut Expectations【June 19, 2025】
Fundamental Analysis
Fed Chair Powell Denies Early Rate Cuts
With inflation expected to rise due to Trump’s new tariffs, rate cuts within the year may be difficult.
USDJPY Technical Analysis
Analyzing the USDJPY daily chart shows that lows are gradually rising. According to the Alligator indicator developed by Bill Williams, the mouth is slightly opening, indicating a possible upcoming trend after a period of range-bound movement since late May.
The key point is whether it can break above the 145 yen level. The upside target seems to be around 148 yen. Powell’s hawkish remarks denying early rate cuts would typically lead to dollar buying.
However, with escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East and reports suggesting possible U.S. involvement, the situation remains highly uncertain.
USDJPY/Daily
Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)
Although the Fed Chair’s press conference was hawkish, market focus has shifted to the Middle East situation. The conflict between Israel and Iran is intensifying, with reports suggesting potential U.S. military involvement. This has created a highly risky market environment.
If the U.S. actually intervenes, a rapid yen appreciation may occur. Caution is advised during the NY session announcements.
For now, sticking to short-term trades may be safer. Consider short positions around 145 yen, long positions around 144 yen, and immediately apply stop-loss orders upon any breakout.
EURUSD／1H
Support and Resistance Levels
Support and resistance levels to watch going forward:
- 144.40 yen — Yesterday’s low
Market Sentiment
USDJPY
- 49% short ／ 51% long
Key Economic Events Today
| Event／Indicator | Time（JPT） |
| --- | --- |U.S. Holiday (Public Holiday)–U.K. – Bank of England (BoE) Policy Rate20：00U.S. – Jobless Claims21:30
Risk Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading forex and CFDs involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
