Fundamental Analysis

• Meeting Between Prime Minister Ishiba and BOJ Governor Confirms Cooperation Between the Government and the BOJ
• Prime Minister Ishiba Comments That the Market Environment is Not Suitable for Additional Rate Hikes
• US ADP Employment Report Exceeds Market Expectations, Leading to USD Buying and JPY Weakness

USDJPY technical analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of USDJPY, the pair has risen while using the 28-day moving average as support. One of the factors driving this is Prime Minister Ishiba, who had been seen as hawkish and supportive of further rate hikes, commenting to the press after his meeting with the BOJ Governor that “the environment is not suitable for additional rate hikes.”

Additionally, the US ADP Employment Report surpassed market expectations, reducing expectations for a large rate cut. This led to a combination of USD buying and JPY selling, causing USDJPY to soar from 143 JPY to the 146 JPY range. While tomorrow’s US Nonfarm Payrolls will have an impact, the pair is in an upward trend.

We expect the upward momentum to continue today. Currently, 75% of traders hold sell positions, and further increases in USDJPY could trigger stop-loss orders, accelerating JPY weakness.

We forecast a range of 146 JPY to 148 JPY.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of USDJPY, we observe a perfect order where short-term, mid-term, and long-term moving averages are aligned from top to bottom. We expect USDJPY to rise toward 148.50 JPY, corresponding to the 100% Fibonacci expansion level.

Our day trading strategy is to buy. We plan to enter long positions intermittently up to 148.50 JPY. If the pair falls below 145.90 JPY, we will cut losses. We are looking for further upside today.

Support and Resistance Levels
The following support and resistance levels should be considered going forward:

148.50 JPY – Fibonacci Expansion 100%
145.90 JPY – Fibonacci Expansion 61.8%

Support/Resistance lines

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Short: 75%
USDJPY Long: 25%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.