USD/JPY Maintains Bearish Trend, Breaks Below 52-day Moving Average 【June 27, 2025】

Fundamental Analysis

• The US dollar weakened following reports of President Trump’s intent for an early appointment of a new Fed Chair.
• Several Federal Reserve board members signaled potential rate cuts, intensifying USD selling pressure.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

 Analyzing the daily chart of USD/JPY, the pair broke below the 52-day moving average, dropping to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Fibonacci levels continue to hold strong technical influence, resulting in ongoing narrow-range trading. The current support level is around 144.26 yen, but intensified USD selling could push prices towards the 23.6% Fibonacci level near 142.60 yen. Historically, the 142.60 yen mark has provided robust support, bouncing back prices six times previously.

While uncertainty remains around the continuation of dollar selling, breaking the 52-day moving average significantly increases the likelihood of further declines toward the 142-yen level. A bearish trading bias is preferred.

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

On the hourly chart, recent price action shows slightly rising lows over the short term. Traders should remain cautious until a clear break below the 38.2% Fibonacci level occurs. A confirmed break of this level is likely to trigger stop-loss selling, potentially sending prices towards the 142-yen area.

Recommended day trading strategy:

• Sell Limit around 144.70 yen
• Stop Loss at 144.85 yen
• Take Profit at around 142.65 yen

Support and Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels to watch going forward:

• 142.65 yen: Previously significant support level

Market Sentiment

USDJPY

• 38% short ／ 62% long

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