Fundamental Analysis

• The US ADP employment data fell short of expectations, while the US ISM statistics exceeded forecasts.
• Expectations for a rate cut are rising, putting upward pressure on gold.
• Today’s US employment data is under scrutiny, with attention on the unemployment rate.

XAUUSD technical analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of gold, it can be seen that gold rebounded from the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level, with the 28-day moving average being closely watched. The appearance of a hammer candlestick near the 28-day moving average suggests buying interest at the dip. Since the 61.8% level was clearly respected, there is a high probability that the price will rise toward the 100% level.

The 100% level corresponds to 2,550 USD, but the first key point would be breaking the previous high at 2,531 USD. The RSI is at 59, indicating there is room for upward movement. The MACD crossing above the signal line will be the key point. If this happens, new buying interest is likely to emerge, further accelerating the upward trend.

However, given the uncertainty around today’s US employment data, position management is crucial, though the overall outlook remains bullish.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of gold, we see a gradual upward trend, as confirmed by the GMMA. The 28-day moving average is being closely monitored, and the next price target is expected to be the recent high of 2,531 USD. The RSI is at 61, indicating room for further growth.

Price targets for the resistance zones are predicted to be 2,531 USD, 2,542 USD, and 2,550 USD.

The day trading strategy is to buy. Given the likelihood of weak numbers in the US employment data, due to the decline in job openings and the weak ADP report, it’s expected that the US employment data may also show weak results. However, the plan is not to hold any positions before the data release.

Throughout the day, the outlook is bullish, and after the employment data release, the plan is to maintain a buying perspective while monitoring the situation. The final profit target is set at 2,550 USD.

Support/Resistance lines

The following support and resistance lines should be considered moving forward:

2,531 USD – recent high

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD – Sell: 71%, Buy: 29%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.