Fundamental Analysis

• Germany’s conservative opposition and far-right parties gain ground, dealing a blow to the current administration.
• Gold has continued its uptrend for eight consecutive weeks, marking the longest bull run since 2020.

XAUUSD Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of gold, the bullish trend remains intact, with gold reaching a new all-time high of USD 2,956. On the weekly chart, gold is forming a band walk along the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, extending its winning streak to eight weeks. This marks the longest sustained uptrend since 2020.

The rally is driven by central bank purchases and increasing ETF holdings. ETF inflows have reached levels not seen since 2022, suggesting a shift of funds from the stock market into gold.

The daily ADX is approaching 60, but the +DI (Directional Indicator) has slightly declined to 24, signaling a potential pullback. A correction towards USD 2,870, where the 26-day moving average is positioned, could occur before further gains.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour gold chart, we see a range-bound market between USD 2,920 and USD 2,955. The USD 2,955 level is the projected monthly high for February.

Looking ahead to March, gold may test the USD 3,000 level. However, buying at high price zones should be avoided. It is advisable to wait for a pullback and consider entry points around the 10-day moving average at USD 2,924 or the 26-day moving average at USD 2,870. The target price for closing positions is USD 2,950, while a clear break below the moving averages should be used as a stop-loss.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider:

• USD 2,980 – Major resistance level
• USD 2,955 – Monthly resistance level

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD Sell: 61% / Buy: 39%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.