Fundamental Analysis

  • ECB board member Schnabel stated that "there is no disagreement that the next move could be a rate hike"
  • EUR/USD briefly surged above 1.167 before quickly dropping back to 1.162

EUR/USD Gradual Uptrend

ECB board member Schnabel stated that "there is no disagreement that the next move could be a rate hike." Following this comment, EUR/USD briefly surged above 1.167. However, because an immediate hike is not expected, the pair quickly dropped back to around 1.162. The conversion line of the Ichimoku Cloud is acting as support.

Since the U.S. Federal Reserve is moving toward rate cuts, upward pressure on EUR/USD is likely to increase. From a technical perspective, ADX is trending higher, suggesting that the upward trend is strengthening.

EUR/USD tends to react to round numbers. The 1.1650 and 1.1700 areas are likely to serve as resistance. The 1.17 level also aligns with the upper edge of the Ichimoku Cloud, and a breakout above it could accelerate the uptrend.

EUR/USD daily chart showing conversion line support, ADX rising, round number resistance at 1.1650 and 1.17 with cloud upper edge (December 9, 2025)
[EUR/USD – Daily Chart]

EUR/USD Day-Trading Strategy

On the 1-hour chart, a Morning Star pattern has formed—large bearish candle, doji, and large bullish candle—indicating a possible trend reversal. As long as the price does not fall below the doji's low at 1.1616, the trading bias remains to the upside.

Today is likely to be a range-bound session, so buying on dips is preferred.

A buy limit around 1.1620 is reasonable, with a short-term stop loss below 1.1615.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart showing Morning Star pattern, doji low at 1.1616, buy limit at 1.1620 strategy (December 9, 2025)
[EUR/USD – 1-Hour Chart]

Today's Key Events

Event Time
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision 12:30
U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (October) 24:00