Gold Forms a Consolidation Triangle

Fundamental Analysis

• Although diplomatic friction continues between Japan and China, the impact on the market appears limited
• Gold is still searching for direction as it forms a triangular consolidation pattern

Forming a Triangle

Gold has been making lower highs while higher lows remain supported by the 52EMA. The 26EMA also acts as a support line, leaving the market without a clear trend. The Fed has shown a cautious stance toward rate cuts, creating a bearish factor for gold. The market is not fully convinced that the Fed will cut rates at the December FOMC, which adds to the lack of direction.

The $4,000 level is a key support area, and whether gold can hold above it will be crucial. Eventually, the market is expected to break out either upward or downward. For now, staying on the sidelines may be wise.

Gold Day-Trade Strategy

On the 1-hour chart, gold continues to range between $4,000 and $4,100, though the upper side is gradually becoming heavier. The moving averages also show no clear trend.

Expectations for rate cuts have weakened, strengthening the dollar, but buying interest in gold continues to provide underlying support. Notably, multiple fractals appear near $4,000, indicating steady buying activity.

A pullback-based long entry could be considered.

Today's Key Events

Note: Due to the U.S. government shutdown, U.S. economic data releases may be delayed.

Event	Time
ECB President Lagarde Speech	23:45