Fundamental Analysis

  • Gold remains capped below the key $5,000 level, with weak upside momentum. Prices have fallen below the 10-day and 26-day moving averages, reinforcing the downtrend. A break lower could lead to a decline toward the 52-day moving average near $4,780. RSI stands at 42, signaling increasing downside pressure. The bias remains bearish unless gold climbs back above $4,980.

Fundamental Analysis

Japan’s GDP growth remains sluggish, leaving USD/JPY largely unchanged.
Outflows from the cryptocurrency market continue.

$5,000 Proves Heavy

Gold has failed to break above $5,000 and volatility remains extremely low. With market-moving factors temporarily exhausted, there appears to be little catalyst for further upside. The $5,000 level is acting as strong resistance. Prices have fallen below the 10-day and 26-day moving averages, signaling a downtrend. If gold breaks further below the 26-day moving average, it could decline toward the 52-day moving average around $4,780.

There is a possibility that the market will attempt to renew recent lows. If RSI falls below 50, downside pressure may accelerate.

Gold / Daily Chart

Gold has been unable to make new highs. Although it temporarily recovered above $5,000, lower highs are forming, indicating strengthening downside pressure. From a chart perspective, the structure suggests a bearish trend. After confirming that the key psychological level is functioning as resistance, the market may aim to test new lows again.

RSI currently stands at 42, a level that reflects increasing selling pressure.

The basic strategy is to maintain a bearish stance, entering market sell orders with a target around $4,780. If price rises above $4,980, positions should be stopped out.

Gold / 1-Hour Chart

Today’s Economic Indicators

16:00 (JST) – Germany Consumer Price Index (January CPI)
16:00 (JST) – UK ILO Unemployment Rate (December)
19:00 (JST) – Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (February)
22:30 (JST) – Canada Consumer Price Index (January CPI)
22:30 (JST) – U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index (February)