Fundamental Analysis

  • Gold rebounded at the 200-day moving average, forming a long lower shadow, and is currently trading around $4,700. While the 10-day moving average is acting as support, the overall trend remains downward based on the regression line and RSI below 50. In the short term, bullish Ichimoku signals suggest potential upside toward $4,800. However, this is likely a temporary rebound rather than a trend reversal, and gold may decline again if dollar strength resumes.

Gold has rebounded after forming a large lower shadow at the 200-day moving average (green line). The 10-day moving average is currently functioning as support, with prices hovering around $4,700.

A regression line drawn from January 2026 indicates a downward trend, suggesting that the overall bearish trend remains unchanged. The RSI is also below 50, indicating stronger downward pressure.

A key point will be whether gold can close above $4,850 on a candlestick body basis. However, this recent rise appears to be a temporary rebound rather than a trend reversal, and more time is needed before making significant trading decisions.

Support confirmed in the $4,500 range

On the 1-hour chart, gold has shown support around $4,500 and is rebounding slightly. According to the Ichimoku Cloud, the lagging span has broken above the price, the price has moved above the cloud, and the conversion line has crossed above the base line.

These signals indicate a bullish “three-line confirmation,” suggesting short-term upside potential. During today’s New York session, gold may target a move toward $4,800.

However, higher timeframes do not indicate sustained upward momentum. If dollar buying strengthens, gold could reverse and decline again.

Traders should monitor higher timeframe movements while focusing on short-term trading opportunities.