Gold Firmer; U.S. Jobs Report Could Pave the Way for Future Interest Rate Trends【August 4, 2023】

Fundamental Analysis

• U.S. employment data to be released today; market expectations are for an increase of 200,000 jobs
• U.S. economic indicators show weak results; USDJPY falls with a high shadow line
• Crude oil market rises sharply; Saudi Arabia hints at expanding production cuts

XAUUSD Technical Analysis

Analyze the daily chart of Gold. The daily chart can be analyzed as if it is in the process of forming a reverse head and shoulders, which appears at the lows. Yesterday, the support line was at USD 1932 and the price closed in a firmer manner throughout the day, including the New York time. Since a descending channel can be drawn, the focus is likely to be on whether the price can break below USD 1932, although it is in a downtrend.

Today we have the jobs report, and if the employment environment remains strong, the possibility of a rate hike will emerge, while a weaker environment could lead to a recovery in the gold price.

Day Trading Strategy (Hourly)

It is difficult to set up aggressively today due to the upcoming employment data. The price continues to hover around USD 1932, but the RSI shows that the value is gradually rising.

However, it is important to note that many buy positions are piling up at the lower levels, and there is a possibility of a rush to sell in order to target the stop loss. If this happens, the price may temporarily plunge to around USD 1920. Our policy is to pull back as much as possible, buy at the push, and sell out in the short term.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

1932 USD – Major support zone
1921 USD – Major support zone

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD　Sell: 22% Buy: 78%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.