USDJPY to reach 150 JPY, approaching 145 JPY forex intervention level【August 14, 2023】

Fundamental Analysis

• USDJPY exchange rate intervention level of 145 JPY is in sight, with few major resistance lines to 150 JPY
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rise, USD index rising steadily
• Dollar all-around higher in major forex currencies, with the US-Japan interest rate differential also putting upward pressure on the USDJPY

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyze the 4-hour chart of the USDJPY. First, the uptrend line is holding, confirming that the uptrend is ongoing. This move indicates that the dollar buying trend is continuing. Furthermore, there is an increasing likelihood that the price will enter the 145 JPY level, which is considered to be a currency intervention level.

Analysis of MACD indicates that the MACD histogram is below the signal line, suggesting the possibility of a temporary pullback. Furthermore, divergence is also occurring.

The dollar buying trend is continuing, and the pair should be expected to maintain an upward trend in the long term. There may be some short-term adjustments, but from a medium- to long-term perspective, the uptrend in the USDJPY can be expected to continue.

Day Trading Strategy (Hourly)

Analyzing the hourly chart of the USDJPY, the moving averages are in perfect order position as short, medium and long term. This indicates a strong uptrend. On the other hand, despite the rising price, the RSI value is falling, confirming the occurrence of divergence.

Furthermore, divergence can also be confirmed by the 4-hour MACD, so attention should be paid to the possibility of a short-term selloff.

As a day trading strategy, the policy is to buy at the push. The entry price is set at 144.85 JPY with a stop at 144.25 JPY. While confirming divergence, we would like to take positions based on our belief in the strength of the trend.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

145.90 JPY – Last year’s currency intervention level
144.92 JPY – Pivot point

Market Sentiment

USDJPY　Sell: 72% Buy: 28%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.