USDJPY rises on push, focus is on whether it can make new highs【September 4, 2023】

Fundamental Analysis

• U.S. jobs report shows wage growth declines, but number of employees increases
• Other U.S. economic indicators showed unexpectedly strong results, weakening the dollar temporarily but strengthening the dollar at the end of the day.
• In the currency markets, the dollar continued to strengthen across the board, while the euro weakened across the board

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyze the daily chart of the USDJPY market. The U.S. employment report showed a decline in wage growth, which temporarily tilted the market toward a dollar sell-off, but later another indicator showed that the economy was resilient, and the dollar turned higher. Although the prospect of additional interest rate hikes has receded, the strength of the economy made investors aware of a soft landing, and stocks rose and the dollar strengthened.

The daily Ichimoku Chart base line is now in consciousness, and push-backs are being seen. The recent high is near 147.37 JPY. Since there are no important indicators to be announced today, the focus will likely be on whether the pair can break above 146.75 JPY. A break above this level would increase the likelihood of another high.

Day Trading Strategy (Hourly)

Analyze the hourly chart of the USDJPY market. The market is rebounding, supported by the 240 moving average.
The 240 moving average on the hourly chart represents a 2-week moving average and is an important indicator for swing traders. Today’s upper range price is expected to be around 147.17 JPY. The Bollinger Bands are in the expansion phase, and a band walk could occur if the +1σ acts as support. The dollar is expected to remain strong.

As for day trading policy, consider buying at the push. Entry is at 145.90 JPY, stop at 145.60 JPY, and close at 147.17 JPY. A trailing order will be placed and closed at 147.17 JPY.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

146.65 JPY – Major resistance line
147.17 JPY – Upper forecast price for today’s range

Market Sentiment

USDJPY　Sell: 69% Buy: 31%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.