USD/JPY Rises to 144 Yen Range, Rapid Retreat in BOJ Rate Hike Speculation【January 5, 2024】

Fundamental Analysis

• The USD/JPY has risen to the 144 yen range, jumping from 140 to 144 yen in just three days
• The Noto earthquake’s impact causes rapid retreat in BOJ rate hike speculation, tilting towards yen selling
• Today’s US employment statistics could cause major fluctuations in major currency pairs

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of the USD/JPY pair. Currently, it is moving around the resistance line at 144.40 JPY, and a temporary decline is possible if adjustment movements strengthen. It has clearly broken above the 240-day moving average, indicating a solidifying foundation.

Future trends depend on today’s US employment statistics, but an upward move could target the 146.5 to 147 yen range. The major resistance line on a monthly basis is expected to be at 147.86 JPY, and it might be worth considering selling in the late 147 yen range.

Significant market movements are expected, so it is advisable to trade with deep engagement.

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of the USD/JPY pair. Using Fibonacci expansion, the 61.8% level is strongly recognized by the market. If it breaks above this level, it is likely to reach the 100% target at 145.75 JPY.

Currently, the RSI is at 68, and without adjustment to 145 yen, there is a risk of significant selling pressure before reaching the 100% price target. If the RSI drops to around 60 and then turns upward, the probability of reaching the 100% target increases.

For day trading, consider a sell limit order near the 100% level at 145.75 JPY, with a profit target at 144.85 JPY and a stop loss at 146.25 JPY.

Support and Resistance Lines

Upcoming resistance lines to consider:

146.65 JPY – 23.6% price in Fibonacci retracement
144.40 JPY – Important price level on a monthly basis

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 60%, Buy: 40%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.