XAUUSD Rises to the 2080s, 2100s in Sight?【March 4, 2024】

Fundamental Analysis

• The US ISM Manufacturing Index and Consumer Sentiment Index worsened.
• The scenario of interest rate cuts within the year brings relief, stocks hit record highs.
• USDJPY forms a range in the 150s, XAUUSD volatility.

XAUUSD Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of XAUUSD. XAUUSD had formed a triangle consolidation and has broken out upwards to around 2080 USD, likely triggering stop losses of sell positions. It has clearly surpassed the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, aiming for the next target at the 100% expansion around 2128 USD. This price range corresponds to the previous all-time highs, where sell pressure is expected to increase again.

There’s a significant resistance zone around 2102 USD on a monthly basis, where a pullback sell could occur. Attention should be paid to whether it rebounds around the late 2050s USD.

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of XAUUSD. The RSI on the 1-hour chart is at 72, indicating somewhat overheated buying. A pullback sell is likely. This week, many comments from Fed officials are scheduled, and cautious opinions on rate cuts will exert selling pressure on gold.

Looking at market sentiment, 81% are in sell positions, indicating that new catalysts are needed for an uptrend. Buy-on-dips is anticipated around 2064 USD, where the Ichimoku Base Line resides, and 2056 USD, the halfway point of the uptrend wave.

For day trading, aim to buy on dips near 2055 USD, settle around 2070 USD, and place a stop at 2048 USD.

Support and Resistance Lines

The following are the support and resistance lines to consider:

2102 USD – Fibonacci target high

2078 USD – Monthly support line

2054 USD – Weekly support line

2031 USD – Monthly pivot point

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD Sell: 81% Buy: 19%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.