Swiss National Bank Unexpectedly Cuts Interest Rates, Impact on EURUSD?【March 22, 2024】

Fundamental Analysis

• The Swiss National Bank has decided to cut interest rates, leading to strong selling of the Swiss Franc.
• US stock indices reach new highs, with the S&P 500 marking its 20th record this year.
• USDJPY is trading around 151.50JPY.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of EURUSD, the pair saw significant selling, erasing a previous large bullish candle with a large bearish candle, following the announcement by the Swiss National Bank. The price stopped falling at the Fibonacci retracement’s 38.2% line, but it was still a considerable impact.

As countries end their interest rate hiking cycles, the search for the timing to enter interest rate cutting cycles begins, increasing the likelihood that relevant currencies will be sold each time a central bank policy is announced.

The RSI is at 50, making it uncertain if a downward trend will commence.

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of EURUSD, the market is challenging, but currently, selling USD is dominant. This implies a relative increase in EURUSD. The sharp drop yesterday was a move linked to the announcement by the Swiss National Bank, not primarily due to selling EUR.

However, considering the daily chart, if it breaks clearly below the 38.2% line, it could trigger stop losses, potentially dropping to the price of the 200-day moving average.

Today, aim to place limit orders around the 200-day moving average, specifically buying around 1.08USD, settling at 1.0850USD, and stopping at 1.0780USD.

Support and Resistance Lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider are as follows:

1.08USD – 200-day moving average

Market Sentiment

EURUSD Selling: 40% Buying: 60%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.