USDJPY Continues Weakening Yen Trend, Surprising Hawkishness Within the Bank of Japan?【May 9, 2024】

Fundamental Analysis

• A primary opinion within the Bank of Japan states, “If price increases continue, a rate hike is quite possible.”
• USDJPY has recovered from a weakening yen trend with a low at 151.85JPY and a high at 155.68JPY

USDJPY technical analysis

Analyzing the daily chart for USDJPY, which has risen for four consecutive days. The Fibonacci retracement is being observed, with ongoing battles around the 23.6% level. Breaking above the Ichimoku Cloud’s Conversion Line, with the Base Line acting as resistance.

The 23.6% corresponds to 155.50JPY, and breaking above this level could aim for 160JPY again, requiring vigilance.

It has also been revealed that there were hawkish views within the Bank of Japan. Although this won’t reverse the weakening yen trend, the market’s focus is likely to intensify on the progression of Japan’s Consumer Price Index.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart for USDJPY, where the 24-hour moving average serves as support. A rebound at the Ichimoku Cloud’s Base Line is observed, indicating a strong desire to buy on dips, with the weakening yen trend expected to continue.

The 50% Fibonacci retracement on the 1-hour chart is near 156JPY. Today, 156JPY might become the high.

Day trading policy is to buy on dips. Consider buying around 155.30JPY. Settle at 156JPY and stop if it falls below 155JPY.

Support/Resistance lines

Future important support and resistance lines are as follows:

156.00JPY – 1-hour chart Fibonacci 50%
155.05JPY – 1-hour chart Fibonacci 38.2%

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 76% Buy: 24%

Featured Currency Pair of the Week (EURAUD)

EUR/AUD has risen for three consecutive days. The focus is whether the Conversion Line of the Ichimoku Cloud will act as resistance. In the weekly chart, it is moving within the cloud, indicating unstable movements, with surprisingly strong buying of the euro. Keep an eye on movements near the Conversion Line.

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.