USDJPY at Upper 161 Yen Level, US 10-Year Bond Yield Surges【July 2, 2024】

Fundamental Analysis

• US Supreme Court recognizes part of former President Trump’s immunity privilege.
• USDJPY rises to the upper 161 yen level due to the increase in US 10-year bond yield.

USDJPY technical analysis

USDJPY continues to rise to the upper 161 yen level. With almost no factors contributing to yen appreciation, the continued rise in US 10-year bond yields and the increase in long-term interest rates are considered the reasons. The rise in US long-term interest rates has brought the US-Japan interest rate differential into focus, causing USDJPY to increase.

Practically, USDJPY is nearing an all-time high, and unless the US Federal Reserve takes measures such as lowering interest rates, the demand for USD purchases is likely to continue. However, there is some uncertainty as US stocks are struggling, and the possibility of former President Trump winning the election has also increased demand for USD purchases.

The next target price is likely to be 162 yen. Caution is advised for the continued trend of yen depreciation.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour USDJPY chart, the 52 moving average line is functioning as a support line. After hitting a high of 161.72 yen, it fell back to the low 161 yen level but only experienced a minor drop. Today, attention should be paid to whether it will break above 161.72 yen.

However, on the daily chart, the RSI is above 70, suggesting a potential adjustment movement soon. It is advisable to refrain from aggressive buying and observe the market.

The day trading policy is to place a reverse sell order at 162 yen. The stop loss is set at 162.25 yen, and the target is to settle at 161.65 yen.

Support/Resistance lines

The following support and resistance lines should be considered going forward:

• 162 yen: Weekly resistance line

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 75%, Buy: 25%

Featured Currency Pair of the Week (NZDJPY)

NZDJPY hit a high of 98.35 yen and then retreated. It might be due to an increase in profit-taking sell orders. Analyzing the ADX, the trend is strong, but the upward momentum is weakening. The RSI is around 66, and the RSI highs are not being updated. This also indicates that the upward momentum is weakening.

On the other hand, USDJPY remains at the upper 161 yen level, maintaining the yen depreciation trend. There is a possibility of adjustment movement occurring at the upper 161 yen level. For the time being, there are no major events scheduled in New Zealand or Japan, so technical aspects are likely to be in focus.

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.