Gold is Rising, Aiming for New All-Time Highs【August 2, 2024】

Fundamental Analysis

• The Bank of England has decided to cut interest rates, accelerating the selling of GBPJPY.
• The BOJ has raised interest rates while the rest of the world is cutting, leading to a significant appreciation of the yen.
• US corporate earnings have been disappointing, stock prices are falling, and the VIX is soaring.

XAUUSD technical analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of gold. The resistance line is the May high of 2450USD. A closer look at the daily chart shows multiple bullish signals, such as a bounce off the cloud, RSI rebounding at 50, MACD crossing above the signal line, and the conversion line crossing above the baseline.

The future focus will be whether it can surpass 2450USD and update the recent high of 2483USD.

From a fundamental perspective, except for Japan, other countries are moving towards interest rate cuts, and stock markets, including US stock prices, are plummeting. It is expected that gold buying demand will strengthen due to risk aversion movements and the impact of interest rate cuts. The instability in the Middle East is also a factor in gold buying.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour gold chart. It seems that divergence is occurring on the 1-hour chart. Although the highs are being updated, the MACD peaks are gradually decreasing, and the RSI is also dropping to around 58.

Basically, it will be determined by today’s US employment report.

If the employment report falls short of market expectations and the market perceives a tough labor market, USD selling will occur, and gold will aim to break the all-time high. If the US employment report exceeds market expectations and recession concerns ease, gold could fall to around 2420USD.

The day trading policy is to buy on deep dips. I would like to consider buying if it falls to the lower 2400USD.

Support/Resistance lines

The support and resistance lines to consider in the future are as follows.

2483USD … Recent high

2450USD … Notable support zone

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD Sell: 61% Buy: 39%

Featured Currency Pair of the Week (EURAUD)

EURAUD has strongly rebounded. The conversion line of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is serving as a support line, aiming to update the recent high. The appearance of a strong bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow suggests a signal for future increases. The RSI is at 68, indicating a possible adjustment, but I would like to predict that the upward trend will continue.

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.