USDJPY Temporarily Rebounds to 151 JPY; BOJ Additional Rate Hike Likely Postponed【December 5, 2024】

Fundamental Analysis

• Reports suggest BOJ additional rate hike postponed; USDJPY reaches the 151 JPY range.
• The U.S. ADP employment data shows a modest recovery but falls short of expectations.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that USDJPY rebounded at 149.39 JPY and climbed to around 151.23 JPY. The report suggesting BOJ’s rate hike postponement triggered position adjustments, reducing Yen-buying momentum.

However, uncertainty remains regarding whether the BOJ will raise rates. Even if a rate hike is postponed in December, it is likely to occur during the BOJ’s January meeting. Overall, it appears natural to anticipate USDJPY leaning towards a stronger JPY in the medium term.

If the pair breaks below the 28-day moving average, it could test the support level at 149.39 JPY again.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

The 1-hour chart analysis indicates USDJPY reached its target high of around 150.85 JPY, based on the Wolfe Wave Theory, before retreating. Given that the timing of the BOJ rate hike—this month or next—remains uncertain, traders are advised to approach calmly with a strategy favoring a stronger JPY.

Trade Strategy:

• Sell USDJPY targeting 148.50 JPY, employing a rotation of sell trades.
• If USDJPY breaks above 151.230 JPY, traders should pause and reassess due to potential unforeseen factors.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider:

• Resistance at 151.20 JPY: Previous day’s high

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 48% / Buy: 52%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.