Gold: No Clear Direction, Focus on FOMC Press Conference【December 18, 2024】

Fundamental Analysis

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the ninth consecutive day, marking its longest losing streak in 46 years.
• US Retail Sales showed positive results, raising concerns that interest rate cuts might pause next year.
• The FRB Chair’s Press Conference early tomorrow morning will be closely monitored for hints about future interest rate directions.

XAUUSD Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of Gold, Gold formed a double top with a high at USD 2720 and retreated. However, the downside is solid above USD 2650, showing slight movements. Lows are gradually rising, but Gold remains below the 72-day moving average.

Focus on the FOMC press conference early tomorrow morning and the dot plot by each member.

If the stance turns hawkish, Gold could break downward and fall to around USD 2550. Market sentiment is evenly split, a sign that the wait-and-see stance is spreading throughout the market. Attention should be given to the breakout of the ascending triangle with rising lows.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of Gold, it has broken above the downtrend line, showing signs of upward momentum. However, the strong US economy has raised skepticism in the market that US rate cuts might pause, which is a bearish factor for Gold.

For now, trade with a sell-on-rally approach.

Place a sell limit at USD 2690. If it clearly breaks above USD 2700, stop the trade. Place another sell limit at USD 2720. Target profit at USD 2650.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider:

• USD 2720 – Double Top High

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD Sell: 50% / Buy: 50%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.