Tariffs Shake the Forex Market, Tariff Implementation Delayed by One Month【February 4, 2025】

Fundamental Analysis

• Tariffs on Canada and Mexico Delayed by One Month, Meeting Planned with China
• The initial announcement of tariff implementation caused market turmoil, but the postponement led to a sharp reversal in sentiment.
• Future market trends remain unstable and difficult to predict, making short-term trading strategies more viable.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of EURUSD: The announcement of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China initially triggered market concerns that the EU could be the next target. As a result, EURUSD opened with a significant gap down, dropping to 1.02 USD.

Although former President Trump had posted that there would be “no dramatic developments,” the decision was later changed, and the tariffs were postponed for one month. This back-and-forth left the market unsettled, but the delay led to a reassessment, prompting buybacks in EURUSD.

However, the situation remains fluid and unpredictable. The impact of tariff implementation would be substantial, so the market remains cautious. The MACD histogram is beginning to form a trough, while the Stochastic indicator suggests a potential oversold condition.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of EURUSD: The market opened with a large gap down, but the delay in tariffs has led to a move to fill the gap. However, the postponement does not mean cancellation. Additionally, EU tariff negotiations have not progressed and are yet to begin. With unpredictable headlines likely to emerge, the situation remains highly uncertain.

It is difficult to set a clear day trading strategy, but USD buying pressure may strengthen. The basic approach remains short-selling with a cautious stance. A strategy of selling at price rebounds could be effective.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider:

• 1.05 USD – Round number / recent high
• 1.042 USD – 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level

Market Sentiment

EURUSD – Sell: 30% / Buy: 70%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.