USDJPY Forms a Temporary High? US-Ukraine Talks Collapse【March 3, 2025】

Fundamental Analysis

• Trump and Zelensky Engage in Heated Argument
• Resource trade agreements and the joint press conference were canceled, fueling investor uncertainty.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

USDJPY remains in a downtrend. Applying the Fibonacci retracement, the pair rebounded at 148.56 JPY and is hovering around the 50% level at 150.87 JPY. A descending trendline can be drawn, suggesting a possible retracement up to the high 151 JPY range. Unless USDJPY breaks above the descending trendline, a bearish outlook should be maintained.

The RSI stands at 45, and attention is on whether it will decline at 50. USD buying pressure is increasing, and the pair may touch the descending trendline.

Tomorrow marks the implementation of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, creating market anxiety. With various news expected to emerge, close monitoring is advised.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart, USDJPY is forming a “Saucer Bottom” (also known as a “Rounded Bottom”), which is one of the reversal signals in Sakata’s Five Methods. The price is making higher lows, rising from 148.56 JPY to 148.75 JPY and 149 JPY. It reacted to the daily Fibonacci retracement level but ultimately closed above it.

The RSI is at 65, with the 50% level acting as resistance, so whether the pair will decline from here is crucial. Aiming for a sell at a temporary high remains the preferred strategy.

The day trading approach is to sell near 152 JPY, take profit at 150.80 JPY, and set a stop if the descending trendline is clearly broken to the upside.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider:

• 150.75 JPY – Fibonacci Line

Market Sentiment

USDJPY: Sell 61% / Buy 39%

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*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.