USDJPY Holds Ground as the Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged【May 8, 2025】

Fundamental Analysis

• FOMC Decision: The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged and signaled no rush to cut rates.
• Powell’s Remarks: Chair Powell voiced concern over the administration’s tariff policy, warning at the press conference that prolonging tariffs could stoke inflation, slow growth, and push unemployment higher.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

USDJPY is trading above the 26-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), hovering near 143.85 JPY.

A minor upward trend-line can be drawn, but price has not yet broken decisively above it. Watch for momentum strong enough to clear this trend-line.

Catalyst Ahead: The US-China trade talks scheduled for this weekend could trigger significant volatility depending on the outcome.

Day trading strategy

After the rate decision, USDJPY dipped into the 142 JPY handle during Powell’s remarks but quickly found buyers and climbed to around 143.90 JPY in the Asian morning.

Monitor whether the daily trend-line (now near the upper-144 JPY area) acts as resistance. The RSI is 65.8; a push to 70—coinciding with the trend-line—could invite a pullback.

Intraday plan:

Stop-loss: 145.25 JPY.

Sell USDJPY in the upper-144 JPY zone, looking for a pullback off the rising trend-line.

Take-profit: at either the 10-day or 26-day moving average.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider:

• 144.50 JPY – Pivot R1
• 143.38 JPY – Pivot Point

Market Sentiment

USDJPY – Sell: 40% / Buy: 60%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.