Trump Shock Pushes USDJPY into a Downtrend, Trading in the 142 Range【May 26, 2025】

Fundamental Analysis

• The Trump administration warns Apple of possible tariffs.
• A 50% tariff on EU imports is announced, to be implemented from June 1.
• The administration approves a business alliance involving Nippon Steel.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

USDJPY remains in a downward trend.

While it had reached the 148 range in mid-May, it has now declined to the 142 range. Late last week, the Trump administration announced a 50% tariff on EU goods, to take effect on June 1.

Additionally, it warned Apple of tariffs due to its lack of domestic production. This aggressive stance—even toward prominent U.S. firms—appears to have shaken market sentiment.

Today, U.S. and U.K. markets are closed for public holidays. The full market impact of the Trump shock may unfold from tomorrow.
We expect the USDJPY downtrend to continue.

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

The 26-period moving average on the 1-hour chart is acting as resistance, and prices are trading near recent lows.

The 141.60 yen level is a key support area, and a move into the 140 range is now in sight. The 139–140 yen range has served as a strong support zone with three previous rebounds. Whether it will hold on the fourth test is in focus.

Given that this would be the fourth test, a downside breakout is highly possible. In particular, the weekly chart suggests increased caution around a break below the 140 level.

Support and Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels to watch going forward:

• Sell Entry: Around 142.80 yen
• Take Profit: 141.50 yen
• Stop Loss: 143.25 yen
  

Market Sentiment

USDJPY

• Short positions: 40%　Long positions: 60%

Today’s Key Economic Indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.