Gold Pauses After Rally; Focus on 52-Day Moving Average【June 16, 2025】

Fundamental Analysis

• The geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains elevated.
• Market participants are closely watching whether the U.S. will become involved in the conflict.
• The cautious stance of the U.S. adds further uncertainty to the outlook.

XAUUSD Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of gold.
Gold has broken out of the trendline, but has temporarily pulled back after reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level.
Last week’s exchange of attacks between Iran and Israel drove gold higher as a safe-haven asset.

Currently, the risk-off sentiment has calmed.

The 52-day moving average is acting as a support level, and the upward trend remains intact.

In the medium to long term, gold appears likely to continue rising.　The 3,450USD level, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, will likely act as strong resistance.

If gold surpasses 3,450USD, the next target zones will be the all-time high at 3,500USD and the 100% Fibonacci level at 3,650USD.

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of gold:
After reaching 3,450USD, gold has drifted lower amid a lack of fresh catalysts.

The 52-day moving average continues to act as support.
The RSI is around 50, and if the upward trend continues, buying on dips is expected to intensify.

On the other hand, if the price breaks below the 52-day moving average, a deeper correction may follow, potentially pushing prices down to around 3,385USD.Heading into the New York session, the preferred strategy is dip buying.

Buy limit: around 3,385USD
Take profit: around 3,400USD
Stop loss: below 3,380USD

Support and Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels to watch going forward:

• 3,450USD – Recent high
• 3,385USD – Fibonacci level

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD

• 42% short ／ 58% long

Key Economic Events Today