EUR/USD edges higher, markets await early-morning FOMC【June 18, 2025】

Fundamental Analysis

• The Bank of Japan has eased its reduction in JGB purchases, showing consideration for long-term yields.
• With the FOMC looming, the market is watching closely for any mention of forthcoming rate cuts.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is hovering near the round number of 1.150USD. While price has slipped fractionally below the Tenkan-sen, the Kijun-sen is pointing upward, so the overall upward bias remains.

The Tenkan-sen sits at 1.1502USD, and traders are eyeing whether the pair can regain this level.

A look at Fibonacci expansion shows clear reactions at 61.8 % and 100 %, indicating these levels are closely watched.

The 161.8 % projection, around 1.1685USD, is likely to serve as the next upside target.

If the FOMC hints at rate cuts, dollar selling could lift EUR/USD. A hawkish stance with no cut guidance could see dollar buying drive the pair down toward 1.1350USD.

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

On the 1-hour chart, the 1.150USD round number is pivotal. After dipping to 1.1475USD, the pair staged a return-move and is slightly above 1.150USD. Should 1.150USD prove to be resistance, a slide toward 1.1350USD is possible.

Intraday bias: sell on rallies

• Entry : limit sell at 1.1535USD
• Take-profit : around 1.1385USD
• Stop : 1.1560USD

Support and Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels to watch going forward:

• 1.150USD – round number

Market Sentiment

EURUSD

• 62% short ／ 38% long

Key Economic Events Today