Gold is About to Break Out! Let’s Predict the Next Move【JULY18,2025】

Gold Market Overview (Swing Trade Strategy)

Let’s assess today’s gold market conditions.
Key points of the market environment:

• The Dollar Index has risen for two consecutive weeks; the strong dollar trend continues
• A downward trendline is forming
• Volatility has sharply declined over the past few weeks

Looking at the weekly chart, gold had been on a consistent uptrend since around October 2023, peaking near $3,500 before the momentum began to fade.
The rally was intense, and there was little major correction on the weekly scale.

However, recently gold’s volatility has decreased significantly, and a triangle pattern is forming with lower highs and higher lows.

On the daily chart, the Alligator indicator shows that the “mouth is closed” — a sleeping alligator.
Just like a hungry alligator eventually opens its mouth wide, the market may also be poised for a big move soon.

If a breakout occurs to the upside, $3,500 could be the target.
If it breaks to the downside, around $3,250 may become the focus.

XAUUSD Day Trading Strategy

Gold is in a downward bias, capped by a trendline.

Fractals appear near this trendline, suggesting that past resistance has led to pullbacks.
Although the downtrend is modest, strong dip buying prevents a decisive trend from forming.

As a day trade strategy, consider placing a buy limit order around the $3,300 level.

If the trendline is clearly broken to the upside, it may signal a new trend — and we should follow it.

With few clear fundamental drivers, gold is likely to continue searching for direction.
Let’s watch for a technical breakout and remain patient for now.

Key Economic Events Today