USD/JPY Consolidates Below 155

Fundamental Analysis

• Fed's December rate-cut expectations decline; U.S. stocks tumble
• Takaichi administration announces large-scale economic measures

U.S. economic indicators to be released in sequence

With the U.S. government shutdown now over, the release schedule for economic data is expected to gradually return to normal. Cautious comments from several Federal Reserve officials have lowered expectations for a December rate cut, creating upward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

Looking at the daily USD/JPY chart, a rising wedge pattern is forming. A break below the lower wedge line could accelerate a decline toward the 153 level. After forming a corrective low, the pair may resume its upward trend.

The overall U.S. dollar trend remains weak, but USD/JPY appears to be an exception.

USD/JPY Day-Trading Strategy

On the 1-hour chart, the market is in a very difficult phase. The 154.80 level is acting as strong resistance, keeping the upside heavy. A temporary downward correction seems likely. Although the upside is capped, long lower wicks indicate solid underlying demand.

There remains a possibility of another attempt to break through the low-155 range.

Once the U.S. economic data release schedule normalizes and fresh numbers become available, traders should reassess the market direction. Overall, a buy-on-dip approach is preferred.

With the Takaichi administration announcing large-scale fiscal spending, a major reversal toward yen strength appears unlikely.

Key Indicators Today

Note: Due to the U.S. government shutdown, the release of U.S. indicators may still be delayed.

Economic Indicator / Event	Time
Japan GDP	8:50
U.S. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	22:30