USD/JPY Moves Slightly — U.S. Jobs Data May Be Delayed

Fundamental Analysis

The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index has contracted for eight consecutive months, highlighting continued economic slowdown. Chicago Fed President expressed concern over inflation rather than the labor market. Opinions within the Federal Reserve remain divided, leaving the outcome of the December FOMC meeting uncertain.

USD/JPY: Limited Price Action

USD/JPY continues to trade in a narrow range. After breaking the 152.00 resistance level, it climbed into the 154 range. With Japan's holiday yesterday, market activity was subdued. The 153.50 level is now acting as support, suggesting the downside is gradually firming.

U.S. economic data have deteriorated for eight straight months, clearly showing weakening labor conditions. However, the Fed remains split, and markets are not confident about a December rate cut. Despite slowing growth, inflation remains a concern — possibly signaling stagflation.

The Bank of Japan continues its dovish stance. If U.S. rate cuts remain uncertain, the dollar may strengthen further. Buying on dips around 153.50 could be a favorable strategy.

Day Trading Strategy

Resistance around 154.50 appears heavy, but higher lows are forming, suggesting solidifying support. Fundamentals favor the upside, so attention should be paid to whether 153.50 holds as support. The pair could aim for 154.80. Watch closely whether USD/JPY can clearly break above 154.50.

Key Economic Events Today

Note: Due to the U.S. government shutdown, some data releases may be postponed.

Indicator / Event	Time (JST)
Australia – RBA Policy Rate	12:30
Eurozone – ECB President Lagarde Speech	16:40 / 19:00
U.S. – Fed Vice Chair Bowman Speech	20:35
U.S. – JOLTS Job Openings	24:00