USD/JPY Pauses Just Before 158
Daily Market Analysis
Expert analysis of today's market movements and trading opportunities
Daily Market Analysis
Expert analysis of today's market movements and trading opportunities
Fundamental Analysis
- The U.S. nonfarm payrolls for September were released about a month and a half late, coming in stronger than expected
- USD/JPY stalled just below the 158 yen level, showing solid support underneath
Will There Be FX Intervention?
Finance Minister Katayama said that FX intervention "could naturally be considered," aiming to curb excessive yen weakness. However, markets view this as verbal intervention rather than an actual readiness to intervene. The pair broke upward from a rising wedge and climbed toward 158 before entering consolidation following the minister's comments. The market may eventually aim for the 160 yen level.
The gap with the 10EMA has widened, suggesting a near-term correction, but the preferred stance remains buy-on-dip.
The yen's depreciation has been driven by fiscal expansion under the Takaichi administration, though the impact is gradually being priced in. Markets are now waiting for new catalysts. Diplomatic tensions between Japan and China are intensifying, and the Nikkei Index is falling. It is possible that Chinese participants are influencing market sentiment behind the scenes.
Attention is now on whether the pair can surpass the previous high of 158.87.
USD/JPY Day-trade Strategy
USD/JPY has lost momentum just below 158, with the 10EMA beginning to slope downward and the pair now moving in the low 157 yen area. Watch closely to see whether the 52EMA acts as support. The basic plan is buy-on-dip. As U.S. economic indicators are gradually released, the outlook for the U.S. economy will become clearer.
Any declines are expected to be temporary, with the broader trend of yen depreciation likely to continue due to structural factors.
If the pair falls into the upper 156 yen range, buying opportunities should be considered. However, caution is needed with positions held over the weekend.
Today's Key Indicators
Note: Some U.S. economic releases may be delayed due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.
| Indicator / Event | Time |
|---|---|
| U.K. Retail Sales | 16:00 |
| U.S. PMI (Manufacturing) | 23:45 |
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[Special Edition] When Will the Bank of Japan's Next Rate Hike Come?
The Bank of Japan decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at around 0.5%. Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the BOJ would closely watch wage negotiations in next spring's "Shuntō" before making any policy changes.
USD/JPY Faces Resistance as BOJ Keeps Policy Unchanged
The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its current policy settings. Markets are focusing on whether the Governor will mention a possible rate hike in his press conference. Meanwhile, although the U.S. has already begun rate cuts, opinions differ on a possible additional cut in December.
USD/JPY Forms Double Top, Downtrend Ahead?
USD/JPY is forming a double top pattern, trading in the low 151 range. Goldman Sachs forecasts a potential return to around 100 if interest rates continue rising over the next decade. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for early tomorrow with a rate cut already priced in.
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