Fundamental Analysis

  • Amid weaker-than-expected Japanese GDP data, USDJPY remains stuck in a 152–153 yen range. A break above the mid-153 level could open the way toward 155 yen, while a downside break below 152 yen may accelerate selling pressure, potentially targeting below 150 yen. Moving averages suggest downside bias, and a decisive range breakout will likely signal the next major trend.

Fundamental Analysis

Japan’s GDP came in below expectations, highlighting weakness in personal consumption. However, USDJPY remains largely unchanged, continuing to trade within a defined range.

Waiting for a Range Breakout

USDJPY declined to around 152.70 but rebounded. Upside momentum remains heavy above 153.67, where selling pressure continues to emerge. The pair has traded within the same range for four consecutive sessions.

If prices break above the 153 level, a move back toward 155 yen is possible. Conversely, a downside breakout below the 152 level would likely strengthen bearish pressure.

In particular, if the pair breaks below the double-bottom lows, a sharper decline could unfold, bringing sub-150 levels into view. A break below 152.46 would target 150.85 as the next downside objective.

Moving averages continue to point downward, indicating gradually increasing resistance on the upside. Unless USDJPY closes above 154.150, a bearish trading bias remains preferable.

When Will the Range Break?

Signals across the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts remain mixed, making current conditions difficult to trade.

On the 4-hour chart, the 26-period moving average is acting as support, and RSI shows higher lows. Meanwhile, the 1-hour chart remains range-bound, making long entries unattractive.

This is a market environment where patience is required ahead of the next major trend. The longer the range persists, the longer the subsequent trend may last. Traders are watching whether the so-called “Takaichi trade” will resume or whether a full-scale downtrend will begin.

Today’s Economic Indicators

16:00 (JST) – UK Consumer Price Index (January)
22:30 (JST) – US Housing Starts (December)
04:00 (JST, next day) – FOMC Meeting Minutes