USD/JPY Slightly Rebounds, Adjustment Ahead of Christmas Holidays
Daily Market Analysis
Expert analysis of today's market movements and trading opportunities
Daily Market Analysis
Expert analysis of today's market movements and trading opportunities
Fundamental Analysis
- The market is gradually entering Christmas holiday mode
- Position adjustments may intensify in the coming days
- A rate hike is widely expected at the Bank of Japan policy meeting
USD/JPY Rebounds?
USD/JPY rebounded at the 52-day moving average and is now approaching the 26-day moving average. The pair has moved back above the 23.6% Fibonacci level and is currently facing resistance at the conversion line. The 26-day moving average is also acting as resistance.
Today, the US Consumer Price Index will be released, followed by the Bank of Japan policy meeting tomorrow. For USD/JPY, tomorrow represents the final major event of the year.
While a rate hike is almost fully priced in, market attention is focused on whether BOJ Governor Ueda will comment on the "neutral rate," which indicates how far interest rates could rise. Previously, this level was considered to be around 1.0%, but if the terminal rate is suggested to be 1.5% or higher, the market may interpret this as a signal that rate hikes will continue.
This would be a strong catalyst for yen appreciation. Such a scenario could be particularly negative for equities outside the banking sector. Caution is warranted as the year-end approaches, given the risk of heightened volatility.
Day Trading Strategy
The 26-day moving average has crossed above the 52-day moving average, forming a golden cross, which technically suggests a bullish bias. However, considering tomorrow's major event, the current move is more likely a position adjustment.
USD/JPY is trading around the mid-155 level, but upside resistance is expected to remain strong. Traders should stay alert to potential reversal timing.
Today's Key Economic Events
| Economic Indicator / Event | Time |
|---|---|
| UK Policy Rate Decision | 21:00 |
| Eurozone Policy Rate Decision | 22:15 |
| US CPI | 22:30 |
| ECB President Press Conference | 22:45 |
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![[Special Edition] When Will the Bank of Japan's Next Rate Hike Come?](/_next/image/?url=%2Fimages%2Fmarket-analysis%2F20251031USDJPYDAY.webp&w=3840&q=75&dpl=dpl_EVURUrhddJBBQ97vu5HQ8BR57VPB)
[Special Edition] When Will the Bank of Japan's Next Rate Hike Come?
The Bank of Japan decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at around 0.5%. Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the BOJ would closely watch wage negotiations in next spring's "Shuntō" before making any policy changes.
USD/JPY Faces Resistance as BOJ Keeps Policy Unchanged
The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its current policy settings. Markets are focusing on whether the Governor will mention a possible rate hike in his press conference. Meanwhile, although the U.S. has already begun rate cuts, opinions differ on a possible additional cut in December.
USD/JPY Forms Double Top, Downtrend Ahead?
USD/JPY is forming a double top pattern, trading in the low 151 range. Goldman Sachs forecasts a potential return to around 100 if interest rates continue rising over the next decade. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for early tomorrow with a rate cut already priced in.
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