USD/JPY Slightly Lower as U.S. Rate-Cut Expectations Grow

Fundamental Analysis

• Japan's 10-year yield rises to 1.81%
• Waller highlights labor market slowdown; rate-cut speculation grows
• Dollar selling pressure increases across currency markets

Japan's Long-Term Interest Rates Rise

Japan's long-term interest rates are climbing, with the 10-year government bond yield rising above 1.8%, leading to continued bond selling.

From a technical perspective, a bearish engulfing candle has appeared near the recent high. USD/JPY has fallen below the 10 EMA and is also breaking below the 100% Fibonacci level. The upward momentum is weakening, suggesting that traders may want to stay cautious for now.

Fed Governor Waller hinted at the possibility of a rate cut and mentioned that September's employment data may be revised downward. This environment makes it easier for the dollar to weaken across major currency pairs.

Although stock prices have risen on the rate-cut expectations, the reaction appears somewhat excessive, and traders should stay alert for potential market instability.

If USD/JPY continues to decline, a move toward the mid-153 yen level is possible.

10EMA and 100% Fibonacci level with weakening upward momentum (November 26, 2025)" />

USD/JPY Day-Trading Strategy

On the 1-hour chart, the 240 EMA is acting as support. However, upward pressure is weakening, and short-term moving averages may fall below the 240 EMA. If a bearish crossover (dead cross) forms, it will further increase upside resistance.

Because long positions are currently accumulated, traders should watch for stop-loss-triggered selling.

If USD/JPY drops toward the mid-153 yen area, a dip-buying strategy may be considered, although conditions remain challenging.

Today's Key Economic Events

Indicator / Event	Time
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims	22:30