USD/JPY Targeting 155 Yen – Yen Weakness Trend Becomes Clear
Daily Market Analysis
Expert analysis of today's market movements and trading opportunities
Daily Market Analysis
Expert analysis of today's market movements and trading opportunities
Fundamental Analysis
- The market appears to have determined that Japan will not intervene, and the pair has broken through important resistance
- The yen weakness trend remains unchanged, testing how far it can rise
USD/JPY Approaching 155 Yen
USD/JPY is rising toward 155 yen. Despite verbal intervention-like comments from Japan's finance minister, the market has largely ignored them. Prime Minister Takashi commented that "we cannot declare an exit from deflation," restraining rate hikes. The Bank of Japan appears to be coordinating with the government behind the scenes, but may be forced to delay action.
Signs of a U.S. government reopening have triggered USD/JPY gains. Dollar buying has strengthened.
Supported by the conversion line, the pair is approaching 154.80 yen. A breakout above 155 yen seems only a matter of time. If U.S. economic data deteriorates significantly, a temporary decline may occur, but this could present a dip-buying opportunity.
As a side note, it is a fact that the Japanese yen has weakened internationally, and even compared to emerging market currencies, the yen has gradually weakened. We should prepare for further upward movement.
USD/JPY Day Trading Strategy
Looking at the 1-hour chart, the pair pulled back slightly after breaking above 154.80 yen. However, the upward trend remains unchanged. Japan is restraining rate hikes, and the current administration has shown a willingness to issue large amounts of government bonds. It is natural for a currency to depreciate when a country is expected to issue more bonds.
Maintain a thorough buy-on-dips strategy. On the 1-hour chart, consider adding to positions near the conversion line or base line. If the base line is broken, take a wait-and-see approach and set a stop loss.
Today's Key Indicators
※U.S. data releases may be delayed due to the government shutdown.
| Economic Indicator / Event | Time |
|---|---|
| Australia Employment Statistics | 9:30 |
| UK GDP | 16:00 |
| U.S. Consumer Price Index | 22:30 |
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[Special Edition] When Will the Bank of Japan's Next Rate Hike Come?
The Bank of Japan decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at around 0.5%. Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the BOJ would closely watch wage negotiations in next spring's "Shuntō" before making any policy changes.
USD/JPY Faces Resistance as BOJ Keeps Policy Unchanged
The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its current policy settings. Markets are focusing on whether the Governor will mention a possible rate hike in his press conference. Meanwhile, although the U.S. has already begun rate cuts, opinions differ on a possible additional cut in December.
USD/JPY Forms Double Top, Downtrend Ahead?
USD/JPY is forming a double top pattern, trading in the low 151 range. Goldman Sachs forecasts a potential return to around 100 if interest rates continue rising over the next decade. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for early tomorrow with a rate cut already priced in.
This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading leveraged products involves significant risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.