Fundamental Analysis

  • Europe is pushing back against U.S. claims over Greenland
  • Following Ukraine, this issue has emerged as a second geopolitical risk, leading to renewed euro weakness

Range-Bound EUR/USD

EUR/USD is trading in a range. Round numbers are acting as key support and resistance levels. The pair is moving between 1.15 and 1.18, and it is currently falling from the 1.18 level. Price has dropped below the 90-day moving average, and if it breaks below 1.16, a move toward 1.15 is likely.

RSI remains below 50, showing increasing downside pressure. A bearish view remains valid until RSI approaches 30. Market focus is on whether price reacts at the 1.16 support level or breaks lower.

EUR/USD daily chart showing range-bound trading between 1.15-1.18, falling from 1.18, below 90-day moving average, RSI below 50 (January 15, 2026)
[EUR/USD – Daily Chart]

Short-Term Trend on the 1-Hour Chart

On the 1-hour chart, the short-term trend is bearish. The 52-period moving average is acting as resistance. While the downside momentum is not strong and price is consolidating, the overall picture suggests that 1.16 remains a key level.

For day trading, a sell-on-rallies approach is preferred. Staying on the sidelines is reasonable until 1.16 breaks. If price moves below 1.16, new short positions targeting 1.15 could be considered.

EUR/USD 1-hour chart showing bearish short-term trend, 52-period MA as resistance, consolidation, 1.16 key level, sell-on-rallies strategy (January 15, 2026)
[EUR/USD – 1-Hour Chart]

Key Economic Indicators Today

Economic Indicator Time
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index (January) 22:30
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 22:30