Markets Analysis

Market Fundamentals Change; Gold Surges on Declining U.S. Job Numbers【April 5, 2023】

April 05, 2023

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • U.S. Economic Indicators Worsen; U.S. Job Openings Fall More Than Expected
  • Bank of Australia Announces No Rate Hikes, Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged
  • U.S. Stock Indexes Fall Back, Failing to Sustain Rally Momentum
  • Gold rallies sharply, funds flowing into safe-haven assets
  • Pound Sterling Surges, UK Officials Support Additional Rate Hikes
  • Currency markets change as global rate hikes run their course
  • USD/JPY slumps, fears of recession in the U.S. become more realistic
  • Dollar/Yen tumbles to JPY 131 level; watch for a drop to JPY 130 level
  • ADP employment data and ISM non-manufacturing index in focus today

Technical Analysis

The exchange rates are generally weakening against the dollar. The EURUSD and GBPUSD are rising sharply due to the weaker dollar. Gold had strong upward momentum and quickly crossed the USD 2,000 level, rolling over the stop and surging to USD 2,024. On the other hand, the yen strengthened against the dollar and risk aversion was evident in the USDJPY pair.

Depending on the employment data, there is a downside risk for the USDJPY. The pound is likely to rise further as it crosses the upper end of its range.


Analyze the hourly chart of Gold. Yesterday’s move eliminated the stop loss near USD 2000, and the price rose significantly. Currently, it continues to hover around the USD 2020 area, and we assume that the market will remain range-bound until new material emerges.

There is a possibility that the price will fall back once the price drops to around USD 2007, but we believe that there is a strong possibility of push-backs. Although the market is likely to be influenced by U.S. economic indicators, we maintain our long-term view on the upside.

Estimated rangeUSD 2004 – USD 2049
Resistance lineUSD 2027 – USD 2029
Support lineUSD 2015

Pound Dollar (GBPUSD)

Analysis of the daily chart of the GBPUSD shows that it closed above USD 1.245. USD 1.245 is an important milestone where it has fallen back twice in the past and was quickly boosted by the strong dollar weakness. With officials hinting at additional gains, the pound is likely to rally.

In the short term, a move above USD 1.2520 could send it soaring all the way to USD 1.2550. We would like to see a push to the upside.

Estimated rangeUSD 1.2405 – USD 1.2590
Resistance lineUSD 1.2568
Support lineUSD 1.2454

Dollar Yen (USDJPY)

Short-term market analysis on the dollar-yen on the hourly time frame. The pair has fallen below the moving average line and the decline has become more pronounced. JPY 131.370 is the support line, but a clear break below it could lead to a decline to the 130.80 area.

To anticipate a downward trend, we would like to aim for a return to the JPY 131.50 area. However, if the price exceeds the moving average line or exceeds JPY 131.80, we plan to flatten the position once and rethink our strategy.

Estimated rangeJPY 130.46 – JPY 133.230
Resistance lineJPY 131.67
Support lineJPY 130.93

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
NZ Policy Rate Announcement11:00
U.S. ADP employment report21:15
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index21:30

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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