Markets Analysis

US regional bank problems resurface, risk-off mood continues in currency markets【May 5, 2023】

May 05, 2023

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Major U.S. stock indexes continue to fall, risk off as U.S. regional banks sell off
  • Funds concentrated in risk averse currencies, buying in Yen, Swiss Franc, and Gold
  • USD/JPY falls to low JPY 134.50, below the milestone of JPY 134.50
  • Gold hovering around the USD 2050 level, with a large support band at USD 2042
  • ECB decides to raise rates by 0.25%, slows pace of rate hikes
  • ECB denies halting future rate hikes

Technical Analysis

Currency markets were more risk averse for the third day in a row. The yen strengthened across the board, with the dollar falling for the third day in a row. The U.S. regional bank problem has come up again, and people are wondering if the next collapse will occur. One or two problems can be resolved as a single issue, but if a chain of failures occurs on a daily basis, it is natural for investors to be inclined to turn off risk.

Gold is hovering around the USD 2,050 level and has broken through a milestone resistance zone. If risk aversion intensifies, a new high is possible.


Analyze the 4-hour chart of Gold. Gold had been rising through a window, but yesterday’s fluctuations filled the window and then resumed the rise. The milestone price area is around USD 2042. Today’s employment report could also cause significant volatility, but until the U.S. regional bank problem is resolved, the price is likely to rise.

Estimated rangeUSD 2,019 – USD 2,078
Resistance lineUSD 2,061
Support lineUSD 2,042

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Bitcoin has formed a triangle as a chart shape with the upside held back and the downside cut off. If the triangle is broken by some factor, we can expect a trend in that direction.

Since the market is viewed as a safe-haven asset, attention should be paid to the U.S. regional bank issue. The near-term upside target is USD 30,000.

Estimated rangeUSD 27,732 – USD 30,000
Resistance lineUSD 29,100
Support lineUSD 28,230

US dollar Swiss franc (USDCHF)

The Swiss franc is also becoming more easily bid and the downtrend continues. The near-term price target is CHF 0.880, with the RSI at 42 and the downtrend continuing.

Estimated rangeCHF 0.8770 – CHF 0.8910
Resistance lineCHF 0.88900
Support lineCHF 0.8800

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
U.S. Employment Statistics21:30

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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