Dollar-Yen exchange rate is quiet, expecting volatility to recover【May 30, 2023】

May 30, 2023

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Dollar/Yen exchange rates were quiet as the U.K. and U.S. markets were closed
  • Erdogan wins Turkish presidential election; Turkish stocks soar
  • Volatility in the morning Tokyo session due to 30 (Multiple of 5) and the end of the month

USDJPY Technical Analysis

The dollar dropped back to around JPY 140.10, just ahead of JPY 141 . It is currently forming an ascending channel and is hovering near the lower line of the channel at the time of writing (early morning of May 30). The successful negotiation of the U.S. debt ceiling has eliminated risk aversion, and the trend toward a weaker yen and stronger dollar has become clearer.

With the Nikkei Stock Average performing well, even if the yen weakens, the mood is not as bad as last year. With the Ichimoku cloud below the lower band, it is difficult for the pair to try to move lower. The overall trend is expected to be upward.

Day Trade Strategy (Hourly)

The day trading policy is to continue to push the price lower. As the gradual upward channel continues, there may be a push-buying opportunity around 140.20-140.30, which is near the lower channel line. If the lower channel line is clearly broken, the policy is to flatten positions and wait and see.

Ichimoku Cloud

The Ichimoku cloud is waiting below the channel line and is functioning as a support band. However, the lagging line is below the candlestick and may falter if price enters the cloud.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

JPY 140.02 – Major support zone
JPY 139.97 – Weekly pivot


Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 75% Buy: 25%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
U.S. Consumer Confidence Index23:00

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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