Markets Analysis

USDJPY rises, focus on US Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole meeting【August 25, 2023】

August 25, 2023

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Dollar buying prevails across currency markets; markets focus on Chairman Powell’s speech
  • Pound Sterling falls in tandem with Eurodollar; European economy slowing
  • U.S. stock indices sharply lower as U.S. monetary officials do not rule out additional rate hikes

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of the dollar, we can see that the market is currently waiting for the Fed Chairman to speak at the Jackson Hole meeting in the US. Volatility is expected to increase in the wake of this speech during the NY session, and dollar buying is likely to prevail in the hours leading up to it.

The current price has already broken through JPY146 and is expected to rise toward JPY150 in the medium to long term. However, if Chairman Powell explicitly mentions the timing of a rate cut in his speech, it is conceivable that dollar selling could intensify.


Day Trading Strategy (Hourly)

Analysis of the hourly chart of the dollar-yen shows that the +1 sigma line of the Bollinger Band and the conversion line of the Ichimoku Kinko Chart are functioning as clear support lines. These indicators suggest the emergence of a strong uptrend, and since there are no particular factors that would cause the yen to strengthen under the current market environment, the dollar-yen rally is expected to continue.

However, profit-taking selling is likely to occur around 146.80 yen. Today’s day-trade policy is aggressive push-buying. Entry is targeted at the second half of 145 yen to the first half of 146 yen, with settlement at 146.25 yen and 146.80 yen, and a stop at 145.50 yen.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

146.56 JPY – Major resistance line
145.50 JPY – Pivot point


Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 68% Buy: 32%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
Germany Gross Domestic Product15:00
U.S. Jackson Hole Symposium Day 221:00
Remarks by Fed Chairman PowellAround 23:00

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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